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*** This file contains most of the contents of a presentation made by Peter Bell, an employee of BC Tel, to the Mackenzie Area Manager's Meeting in 1985. (The Mackenzie Area of BC Tel comprises north/central BC roughtly in a line extending east/west from Quesnel to the Yukon border.) It was made during the last go around with the CRTC on deregulation and serves to give an idea of ONE of BC Tel's proposed responses to deregulation. Sheer laziness on my part means I won't reproduce spreadsheet data contained in the presentation, anyway I don't think it is vital in getting the point across. JRW *** REMOTE COMMUNITIES PROGRAM This is an appropriate time to reasses the Remote Communities Program. Is it still beneficial to proceed with the program? <<Spreadsheet data on Remote Communities in Service. All show a negative revenue flow.>> Since the programs inception, nearly $6M has been spent to provide telephone service to 12 communities with a total population of approximately 2,000. Of these 12 communities, eight have been provided with exchange service serving a total of 346 subscribers. The rest have been provided with coin TSL. Economically, so far, the program is a totally loskng proposition, generating $256K of revenue during 1983 but incurring $1,122K in annual cost. The remote communities presently recieving exchange service have an average investment of $16,520 per subscriber. One of the corporate benchmarks in our "Best" program is "investment per line". The average investment per line at year end 1983 is $2,486. We consider this too high and are looking for ways to reduce it. Remote communities and other rural progams are in conflict with the obective of "Best". << Spreadsheet data on Remote Communites Remaining. >> Currently under this program, there are still 13 communites remaining to be served. The majority of these will be provided with coin TSL to reflect the change in our guideline... "Communities with more than 50 people but less than 50 anticipated subscribers will be provided with either toll or exchange coin service, if the service is desired or requested by a majority of people in the community. Communities with more than 50 anticipated subscribers will be provided with full exchange service if that option is desired or requested by a majority of people in the community. Coin service should be encouraged if it will satisfy the needs of the people in the community. ..." Despite this change, our cost remains quite high, estimated to be at least $4,915K and a further $1,232K may be required to upgrade two communities (Kitkala and Klemtu) from inital TSL to exchange service. With respect to our "Best" program, the initial investment per sub will be $15,690. BACK TO BASICS There is always a reason for doing something and it is often helpful to restate what it is. What do we hope to achieve with the Remote Communites Program? A business generqally believes its actions lead it to a more profitable position at some point in the future. CURRENT POSITION The Remote Communities Program was to conform to the CRTC that we accepted our monopoly obligation to serve. We expected to be rewared for the responsible position we took be receiving a greater proportion of the rate increases we requested. There was a perceived obligation that the monopoly supplier of telephone service should be the universal supplier of telephone service. Overall rates were set to provide a net return on equity which was linked to market conditions for corporate profitability of similar industries. Profitabilitity of any one business segment was not critical becasue overall rates were set to allow x-subsidization and to provide overall profitablitity. It was therefore considered to be appropriate to invest money in segments of the business thats were not asnd would not become profitable, in order to appear as the universal supplier of telephone service. PREMISES FOR THE CURRENT POSITION - There will always be business segments showing sufficent profits to enable x-subsidization to exist - The regulator can always establish rates that will allow x-subsidization to exist. - We are a sufficently dominant supplier of service that we are obliged to be the universal supplier. - It is the telco's responsibility to provide service to nearly all residents of our serving area at a standard level of service. LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE - Competition will increase in the years ahead. Competitiors will first enter the market segments having the highest profit potential. These same markets are the ones we depend on to subsidize the unprofitiable market segments such as remote communities. - The most profitable market segment at at present is toll. As comptetition forces these profit margins down, the regulator could raise local rates to compensate for the loss in toll contributions. If this creates, as it probably will, excessive profits in certian segments of the local market, competition will be attracted to these segments and once again the contributions that subsidize the unprofitable market segments will be reduced. - It would appear the only way to break this cycle is to substantially reduce x-subsidization. - Profitability will dictate the degree of x-subsidization, the type of service and the levels of service we can provide. SOME CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE The benefits we recieve from pursuing our current strategy will not be there at some point in the future in spite of the regulator's good intentions. Substantial change will not happen suddenly but steady change will occurover the next 5-10 years. This means we should watch closely what we invest today because this investment may take 20- 25 years to retire and the expectation of service in an unprofitable area, once established, will continue. B.C. Tel will probably continue to be looked at as the universal provider of service in BC. In order to protect our ability to remain profitable while offering service throughout BC we must pursue a revised strategy that leads us toward lowering our costs and increasing our rates in the heavily subsidized market areas. At the same time we are pursuing these changes we should be considering the grade of service we can afford to sell within the constraints established by the potential profitablility of each market area. A profitable business can be a good business. We need to work at making rural service a profitable business and a good business. If we start now we have some time. REVIEW OF PROBLEM STATEMENT In the first slide we wish to examine the question "is it still beneficial to proceed with the Rural Communities Program?" Remote communities by themselves are only part of the problem. Keeping in mind the situation x-subisization will create, the problem that needs examination is" "Should we continue to invest in rural markets and support this investment from revenues of more profitable market segments?" OTHER UNPROFITABLE INVESTMENT Other programs encouraging investment in rural areas are: Rural Upgrading Rural Regrading Extension of service on public highways Establishment of new CO's in low density rural areas Remote Commercial Communities (Proposed) Survivability in the Class 5 network Extended Area Service All have common characterisitics They involve high levels of x-subsidization They have little hope of future payback They are never finished CONSISTENCY Another factor we should take note of at this time is our lack of consistency in the way we treat potential customers requesting initial service. This results from the way we have structured the guidelines and the way we administer them. For examples: A customer requesting initial service - in a remote community, pays no exceptional charges - in a remote commercial community is encouraged to contribute enough to provide a positive NPV. - in an existing exhange but beyond existing plant: - receives 165 meters (1/10 mile) free construction allowance - pays $50/30 meters up to 1,650 meters (1 mile) -pays full cost after 1,650 meters GENERAL RECOMMENDATION - Develop a well researched and carefully though through strategy to reduce subsidization of rural service and standardize the level and application of the remaining x-subsidization. - Present this strategy to the regulator and other affected or interested parties (so they can have some input on the methods but NOT the goal). - Revise all guidelines and policy to reflect this strategy. - Communicate and confirm understanding of the goal and strategy by all employees involved in administering it. RECOMMENDATION FOR PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL FROM THE REMOTE COMMUNITY PROGARM - Because, even under a revised strategy, it is unlikely full exchange service can be made profitable we should limit service to a coin phone link to the outside. - A ceiling should also be established for the investment in coin service. - Service to these communities should not be upgraded until they can be shown the be profitable. - No new communities should be added to the list. - All remaining communities should be investigated to determine if they would feel they suffered if no service was provided. Service should only be provided to those comminities we believe we have a commitment to. - We should invite the various government agencies to investigate other ways of funding remote telephone service. IMPLEMENTATION OF PHASED WITHDRAWAL Step 1 - Develop a business case to determine the magnitude of the loss that we would be willing to absorb over the next 10 years. As part of the business case establish the investment cieling that we would apply in any situation. Step 2 - Review all communities in the program to determine which ones we are firmly committed to providing service to. Step 3 - Revise the program to provide only coin service to the remaining communities. Step 4 - Advise the regulator and other government agencies of our change in policy. Step 5 - Advise any communities that we have made prevous commitments to that would differ from our revised program. Step 6 - Seek alternative methods of funding. Step 7 - Issue a revised guideline. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR "COLD TURKEY" WITHDRAWAL FROM THE REMOTE COMMUNITY PROGRAM - Because the regulator is considering allowing major competition from CNCP, BC Rail and Cantel it would be financially imprudent to invest major amounts of capital in segments of the business that are known to be unprofitable. - Stop all further investment in the remote community program until the regulator has established a policy that will lead to continued profitability of B.C. Tel. - Encourage the regulator and the government to investigate other means for financing remote telephone service that would allow the telcos to provide service as a profitable business venture. E.G. A tax on long distance used to fund residential grants. IMPLEMENTATION OF "COLD TURKEY" WITHDRAWAL Step 1 - Develop a well supported polcy paper stating our intentions to immediately stop investment in remote communities and other unprofitable rural programs. Step 2 - Present this policy paper to the regulator and interested government agencies. Step 3 - Establish a revised remote community policy based on the policy paper and input from the regulator and the government agencies. Step 4 - Revise and issue a new remote community guideline advising the areas when and how to end the program. -30-